Probably Stolen Guide: First Trades and Shop Basics
Start by inspecting goods, making trades you can afford and reserving enough cash for rent before buying equipment. Probably Stolen is a shopkeeping game about acquiring the store, not simply filling every inventory cell. The supplied recordings show that even a poor start can develop into a water business, but their individual prices and profits are not universal rules. Build a repeatable daily routine before copying an expensive late-game setup.
Choose a start you understand
The official launch announcement confirms nine playable starting scenarios, so the first decision is which kind of business you want to learn. Apprentice, Water Merchant, Fence, Gunsmith, Chemist, Hydroponic Farmer, Aquafarmer, Rat Wrangler and Rock Bottom give different starting situations. Do not copy the transcript's suggestion that every occupation mentioned on the selection screen is already playable, because some names describe unfinished content. The useful comparison is the equipment, money and obligations shown for the start you can actually select.
Rock Bottom is the challenge used in the supplied zero-money recording, rather than a recommendation that every beginner should begin without resources. That player initially turns sellers away because an attractive inventory is useless when the register cannot cover the purchase. Scavenging eventually provides saleable goods, but the recording also shows carrying-space and injury considerations. If your aim is learning the counter rather than proving a challenge possible, inspect the starting kit before committing to that restriction.
Establish the counter routine
Read what the customer wants before selecting goods, then inspect the items involved instead of accepting a seller's description at face value. The Steam description explicitly identifies counterfeit products, misleading suppliers and questionable origins as part of the trading problem. The recordings turn that warning into practical examples with cigarettes, water and other stock whose apparent condition can be misleading. Treat the conversation, item condition and asking price as separate pieces of information that must agree before the deal makes sense.
Buying a large lot is not automatically a bargain when most of the contents cannot be sold to the customers currently visiting. In the zero-money run, ordinary stock such as household supplies and small tradeable items matters because the player can actually finance those purchases. The display window also becomes part of the operating routine as the player places selected merchandise there. Use those observations to plan a modest stock mix, rather than inventing a universal list of the most profitable opening purchases.
Separate rent money from stock value
The basic objective is to generate enough cash to keep trading while working toward ownership of the premises. A full inventory, a displayed item value and the amount available in the register are different things. Both supplied recordings include periods when valuable goods exist but the immediate financial situation remains uncomfortable. Before accepting another supplier's offer, check what you will have left to meet the next payment instead of assuming the stock will sell in time.
The supplied wiki snapshot says rent is collected on Sundays, and the recordings describe the same recurring pressure. It also distinguishes difficulty-dependent shop prices from a single permanent buyout figure, so the initial price seen in a video should not become your entire plan. Keep the due date and current price visible in your own run when deciding whether to invest. For the actual purchase dialogue, use the separate store-buying guide rather than treating every rent visit as the ending.
Expand into one production chain
The successful water business in the first recording develops through related purchases: sources of water, containers, testing, cleaning equipment and machine upgrades. That sequence explains why buying an impressive machine before understanding its inputs can leave money tied up in equipment. A production chain needs a source of material and a buyer for the finished goods, not just a device sitting behind the counter. Start with a process you can follow from acquisition to sale and check its result after each change.
Water, chemistry and animal husbandry are different trades with different equipment and operating questions. The official store description confirms that production machines and additional trades belong to the game, while the supplied completion recording shows how experimentation can go wrong. Neither recording establishes a guaranteed daily income that applies to every starting scenario. Use the water purification guide or chemistry guide for the relevant workflow before purchasing a collection of unrelated machines.
Review the evening before sleeping
Closing the store is also a decision point for after-hours visits and overnight services. The recordings show trips to the Dumping Ground and Dr Jackson, alongside choices about electricity, cleaning and insurance. One player's early decision to skip a service is an observation about a cash-starved run, not evidence that the service is always unnecessary. Read the current cost and consequence on your own screen before carrying that shortcut into a different situation.
Check the physical destination of items before ending the day, especially if you have begun using the Underground Exchange. Goods intended for an exchange belong in the specified overnight process, whereas an item temporarily placed in trash is not automatically safe storage. The supplied second recording describes janitorial collection and next-morning replacement, making the distinction important even before every recipe is known. Finish the day with a clear plan for what should be sold, processed, stored, exchanged or carried outside.
Handle unfamiliar events without guessing
Named visitors, faction decisions and suspicious deliveries can affect much more than the transaction directly in front of you. The recordings include radioactive barrels, wanted visitors and story choices, so an immediate payment does not prove an encounter has no later consequence. Read the event text and keep task-specific items distinct from ordinary resale stock. Follow the relevant character page when a decision becomes irreversible instead of assuming the most profitable dialogue is also the safest branch.
This beginner route is a synthesis of the official premise and the supplied recordings, not a claim that their complete playthroughs are optimal. Exact opening-day profit, guaranteed customer order and a universally best set of purchases remain Pending confirmation (待确认). The dependable routine is inspection, affordable trading, payment planning and a production chain whose result you can check. Once that routine works, choose a specialist topic from the full guide directory and expand with a specific purpose.
Make one complete trading cycle visible
A useful early milestone is a purchase you understand followed by a sale you can explain, rather than a screenshot of a crowded counter. Identify what the item really was, why its condition mattered and which customer actually bought it. Then compare the resulting cash with the amount paid and the obligations still ahead. That cycle gives you a concrete business observation without pretending that one transaction establishes the best item in the entire game.
Apply the same idea when the shop starts producing goods instead of only reselling them. Follow one batch from its source through the relevant equipment and into the hands of a buyer, keeping other containers identifiable while you do it. If the process fails, you will know whether the missing part is supply, treatment, storage or demand rather than blaming the entire business. Once that chain is understandable, an upgrade can solve a specific problem instead of becoming another purchase made only because a successful video showed it on screen.
Sources and evidence
Reviewed 2026-11-04. Community findings are identified separately from official announcements. Unresolved details are marked Pending confirmation (待确认).
- Probably Stolen on Steam ↗ · Official game description
- Starting with $0 — supplied gameplay transcript ↗ · Player recording; individual run
- Supplied completion-run gameplay transcript ↗ · Player recording; individual run
- Starting scenarios reference ↗ · Community mechanics reference
- Official launch and patch announcements ↗ · Official announcements